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Mvh, manifesto
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This huge, oddly shaped Eurasian chessboard—extending from
Lisbon to Vladivostok—provides the setting for "the game." If
the middle space can be drawn increasingly into the expanding
orbit of the West (where America preponderates), if the southern
region is not subjected to domination by a single player, and if the
East is not unified in a manner that prompts the expulsion of
America from its offshore bases, America can then be said to prevail.
But if the middle space rebuffs the West, becomes an
assertive single entity, and either gains control over the South or
forms an alliance with the major Eastern actor, then America's primacy
in Eurasia shrinks dramatically. The same would be the case
if the two major Eastern players were somehow to unite. Finally,
any ejection of America by its Western partners from its perch on
the western periphery would automatically spell the end of America's
participation in the game on the Eurasian chessboard, even
though that would probably also mean the eventual subordination
of the western extremity to a revived player occupying the
middle space.
That megacontinent is
just too large, too populous, culturally too varied, and composed
of too many historically ambitious and politically energetic states
to be compliant toward even the most economically successful
and politically preeminent global power. This condition places a
premium on geostrategic skill, on the careful, selective, and very
deliberate deployment of America's resources on the huge
Eurasian chessboard.
Geopolitical pivots are the states whose importance is derived
not from their power and motivation but rather from their sensitive
location and from the consequences of their potentially vulnerable
condition for the behavior of geostrategic players.
Ukraine, Azerbaijan, South Korea, Turkey, and Iran play
the role of critically important geopolitical pivots, though both
Turkey and Iran are to some extent—within their more limited capabilities—
also geostrategically active. More will be said about
each in subsequent chapters.
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